The result was George Osborn claimed that a Brexit vote could cost every household 4,300. This is the underlying reason that markets, allegedly, are frightened of Brexit. One suspects that if the Treasury models had suggested there is little cost to leaving, the result would have not been published and George Osborne would have contrived a different argument. Anyway, we all know that econometric models suffer from garbage in, garbage out, but the Treasury is meant to be authoritative and trusted. However, a new paper by Professor David Blake of the Cass Business school points out the extraordinary abuse of economic models in the EU Referendum debate, and he is moved to term the two Treasury reports that gave the Chancellor his facts as dodgy dossiers. Any good Austrian economist can tell you why economic models do not work.
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